FOMC meetings · rate probabilities · precious-metals impact
Fed Intelligence
A dedicated view of official Federal Reserve decisions, upcoming meetings, market-implied cut/hold/hike probabilities and the transmission into real yields, the dollar, gold, silver and miners.
Next FOMC decision
Cut, hold or hike?
These are prediction-market probabilities—not the Federal Reserve’s own forecast. AgAu.ai uses complete meeting-specific markets from Polymarket and Kalshi, with source and freshness clearly shown.
Checking sourceChecking timestamp
Probability movement
How expectations are changing
AgAu.ai stores each valid probability observation so the page can show one-day, one-week and since-last-meeting changes as the history builds. The chart shows a rolling six-week window once enough history exists; until then it displays every valid observation available.
CutHoldHikeRolling window · building history
Institutional & official rate path
Where markets, institutions and the Fed disagree
Prediction markets show what traders price now. The New York Fed survey shows the median expectations of primary dealers and active market participants. The FOMC dot plot shows policymakers’ own assessment of appropriate year-end rates.
Checking institutional expectationsChecking latest releases
Institutional policy path
Awaiting Survey of Market Expectations data.
New York Fed source →Latest dot plot medians
Awaiting Summary of Economic Projections data.
Federal Reserve source →Comparing the three signals
Run the Fed sensor and AI update to compare prediction markets, institutional expectations and the FOMC path.
Official decisions & forward calendar
FOMC decision timeline
The previous four official decisions provide the policy baseline. Live Cut / Hold / Hike pricing is shown only for the next meeting; later dates remain an official calendar rather than being presented as unsupported probabilities.
Recent official decisionsLatest four completed meetings
| Decision date | Official decision | Resulting target range | Meeting type |
|---|
Upcoming FOMC calendarConfirmed decision dates
Confirmed policy record
Official Fed updates
Statements, minutes, press conferences and speeches are treated as confirmed evidence. This is kept separate from market pricing and rumours.
Reported discussion and supplementary sentiment
Rumour watch and prediction markets
Credible reported discussion is kept separate from confirmed Federal Reserve communication. Polymarket and Kalshi can reveal meeting-specific sentiment, but liquidity, wording and incomplete outcome sets can distort headline percentages. Only complete, validated sets populate Cut / Hold / Hike.
Reported discussion / rumours
Polymarket and Kalshi
AgAu.ai analysis
Fed Intelligence
UNCERTAINLow confidence
Run the Fed sensor and AI update to produce the current interpretation.
Gold
Silver
Miners
Source hierarchy
Facts, pricing and rumours kept separate
Federal Reserve calendar, statements, minutes, projections, implementation notes, press conferences and speeches.
Complete meeting-specific Polymarket and Kalshi outcome sets. When both are available, AgAu.ai creates a liquidity-weighted composite.
The New York Fed Survey of Market Expectations provides institutional forecasts, while the official FOMC dot plot provides policymakers’ projected appropriate rate path. Both are kept separate from live prediction-market pricing.
Credible reporting and rumours are kept separate from official facts and market prices.
Meeting statement & press-conference review
AgAu.ai FOMC meeting report
A manually reviewed editorial report combining the official statement, Powell’s press-conference Q&A, AI-assisted summarisation and independent precious-metals commentary.
Human reviewedPublished after each FOMC meeting
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