Loading
Spot context—AgAu spot feed
Liquid future—COMEX front
Front spread—next minus liquid front
—stress
Calculating evidence…
Loading current market structure.
Annualised curve—
Tightness rank—
Physical confirms—
Evidence coverage—
Futures market structure
COMEX Futures & Market Structure
See whether gold and silver futures are in normal carry, unusually tight contango or backwardation — then test the signal against official CME inventories, LBMA vault holdings and CFTC positioning.
Loading futures and physical-market evidence…
Loading
Spot context—AgAu spot feed
Liquid future—COMEX front
Front spread—next minus liquid front
—stress
Calculating evidence…
Loading current market structure.
Annualised curve—
Tightness rank—
Physical confirms—
Evidence coverage—
COMEX futures curves
Contract-by-contract prices show the shape directly. Hover with a mouse or tap on mobile for contract price, volume, price date and estimated expiry.
Gold futures curve
Current curve with historical snapshots.
—contracts
Curve uses individual COMEX GC contracts. Historical controls select the nearest available audited snapshot.
Silver futures curve
Watch the front end for unusual tightness.
—contracts
Silver can move into backwardation without a broad physical shortage; the confirmation layers below matter.
Contango ↔ backwardation history
The core signal is the annualised liquid-front-to-next spread. Zero is parity: above zero is contango, below zero is backwardation.
Gold front spread
Annualised percentage carry.
Silver front spread
Annualised percentage carry.
Physical & positioning confirmation
Independent datasets help distinguish a routine futures-curve effect from a broader tightening signal.
COMEX registered inventory
Silver · official CME daily stocks.
This daily history starts from deployment; current official CME levels are pre-seeded.
London vault holdings
Silver · official LBMA monthly data.
Monthly, one month in arrears. The build is seeded with historical LBMA vault data.
Managed-money positioning
Silver · official CFTC COT.
Positioning is context, not a standalone forecast or proof of physical tightness.
Reading the evidence stack…
Loading current futures and physical-market evidence.
How the stress score works
Deterministic first; AI explains, never invents the number.
The model weights curve tightness, how abnormal the spread is versus its own history, COMEX registered inventory, delivery activity where a stable machine-readable series is available, London vault holdings and CFTC positioning context.
- Backwardation is a signal to investigate, not an accusation.
- Missing data lowers evidence coverage and confidence rather than silently counting as normal.
- Spot/futures basis is displayed as context only; the primary structure calculation is contract-to-contract.
- LBMA benchmark prices are not republished; the page respects benchmark licensing.
Silver score components
Hovering is not required: every component remains visible.
Source health & provenance
Primary official physical/positioning sources are kept separate from the delayed futures quote transport layer.